Tariffs in Kansas: How an Import Tax Could Affect You
Nathan Kessler | August 18, 2025
Tariffs have been used for a variety of reasons in the past. But in today’s economy, they should be narrowly targeted to achieve a specific outcome, such as ending unfair trade practices or human rights abuses. Prolonged, broad-based tariffs should be discouraged because of the cascading effects of increased costs on goods that Americans buy.
In a previous post, we explained what a tariff is and provided a brief history of their use in American trade policy. As a quick reminder, tariffs are essentially a tax on imports paid to the federal government by the importer. This cost may be absorbed by the company that pays it, but generally companies pass that extra cost on to the consumer.
Let’s explore tariffs in the context of the Kansas economy and what these new import taxes could mean for your wallet.
New Taxes Means Higher Costs
The most direct impact on Kansas families from higher tariffs will be increased costs as the companies that import products pass the tax on to consumers. Because so much of what the average Kansas family buys is imported, these higher costs could be significant. Some of the most trade-exposed items are already beginning to see large increases in price as retailers have worked through the stock they purchased ahead of higher tariffs, especially those announced on “Liberation Day” in April.
With many families still struggling in the wake of high inflation over the last three years, further price hikes could be devastating. Unfortunately, avoiding these higher prices won’t be as simple as buying products made or sourced in the United States, as in many cases there are little to no alternatives. For example, 75% of toys sold in the United States come from China while 99% of all coffee consumed here is imported.
Where American alternatives do exist, Kansas families are likely to find little relief from price hikes. When the cost of imported products increases, domestic producers often raise their prices in turn. If the price of toys imported from China increases by 15%, American toy makers will likely raise their own prices to improve profit margins or because some part in their supply chain has become more expensive due to tariffs.
Because of how deeply connected the global economy is through sophisticated supply chains, very few items are likely to be spared from tariff-related inflation. In the best-case scenario, Kansans can expect to spend more to get less as long as tariffs remain high. In the worst-case scenario, we find ourselves caught in a trade war as the United States pushes away longstanding trading partners.
Kansas Loves to Trade
International trade is an important part of the Kansas economy, especially our agriculture and manufacturing industries. In 2024, Kansas exports of durable and nondurable goods totaled $14.4 billion, representing around 6% of state gross domestic product (GDP) and a 19% increase from 2014. Of course, exports are only one side of the trade equation. The total value of trade to the Kansas economy was nearly $30 billion in 2024 — more than 10% of state GDP — after considerable growth since 2000.
The top exports from Kansas include transportation equipment, food and kindred products, computers and electronics, and beef and veal. These export industries support tens of thousands of jobs across the state, in both rural and urban areas alike. The manufacturing industry alone employed nearly 175,000 Kansans in 2024. Thousands more are employed in industries along the supply chain, including agriculture, transportation, and warehousing.
Given the critical role that trade plays in the Kansas economy, it is in our best interest that free trade be allowed to flourish. In our last piece on tariffs, we noted that aggressive U.S. tariff policy in the early 20th Century likely worsened the Great Depression as other nations retaliated and global trade declined significantly, resulting in job losses and higher prices. The global economy is more connected now than it was 100 years ago, meaning a similar scenario could cause even more pain for working Kansans.
The most likely country to retaliate in the current environment is China, as most other trading partners lack the economic influence to significantly disrupt the U.S. economy. However, as one of the largest trading partners for both the United States and Kansas, China can impose some economic hardship and has already been diversifying away from Kansas.
If we continue to alienate our closest allies with unnecessary tariffs, we may find ourselves alone if China decides to increase the pressure and bring in major trading partners of its own, such as Brazil and India. In this case, thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in economic activity would be at risk as the state and national economies deteriorate.
There’s a Better Way
While reducing the country’s reliance on China is actually a good strategic goal, doing so requires disciplined and targeted tariff policy. The current approach of broad-based tariffs (including on our closest allies) will do more harm than good. If the idea is to use tariffs to bring production back to the United States, that is unrealistic. Besides the infrastructure that would require years to build before becoming productive, our country simply does not have the kind of workforce that would be needed for mass production of consumer goods.
Even if all the pieces were in place, no company currently manufacturing overseas would have an incentive to hire workers at American wages. The reality is that if Nike or Apple started making products stateside, their facilities would likely be highly automated. In fact, automation has been responsible for far more job losses than offshoring. A 2015 estimate from Ball State University suggests that nearly 88% of job losses in U.S. manufacturing could be attributed to productivity gains from new technologies.
For the millions of workers who have lost their jobs to either automation or offshoring, there is an understandable anger at an economy that has seemingly left them behind, but that anger is misplaced. Rather than letting workers fall behind after losing their jobs, the public sector should have a robust training and reemployment program in place to ensure successful transitions from one job to another in the event of layoffs. Thus far, that kind of support remains to be seen.
With the rise of artificial intelligence and advanced robotics, we are likely to see more displacement in the coming years, possibly even more than we have seen in the past as new industries are affected. Instead of alienating our allies and raising prices on American consumers through tariffs, the federal government should focus its efforts on preparing today’s workforce for tomorrow’s realities.
Unfortunately, as tariffs begin to kick in, everyday people living on low- and moderate incomes will feel the pinch the most. There is always time to reverse course, and the federal government would be wise to do so before we are all forced to pay the price.
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