FY 2025 Revenue Tracker

Alice Fitzgerald | Updated September 9, 2024

Each month, the Kansas Division of the Budget reports how much tax revenue the state collected for the previous month. Forecasts are released by the Consensus Revenue Estimating Group twice a year, which actual monthly collections are then compared to. These forecasts help lawmakers understand how much total tax revenue they can expect to see in the state coffers, which in turn helps them develop the state’s budget for the cost of government services and operations for the upcoming fiscal year.

Read our explainer on how the state budget works.

KAC’s revenue tracker provides a visual snapshot of each monthly report and how the revenue side of the budget is being funded to achieve a balanced budget.

August 2024

Revenue highlights:

• Actual collections for August 2024 were 3.5%, or $22.80 million, above the estimate for the month and 4.0% higher than August 2023.    

• To date, Kansas has collected 13.0% of the $10.16 billion in total expected revenue for the current fiscal year. 

• Corporate tax collections were $9.8 million, or 32.8%, lower than revenue expectations, although individual income tax and retail sales tax collections were $19.4 million, or 6.3%, and $8.7 million, or 4.1%, higher than expected, respectively.  

For additional details, see the August State General Fund Revenue Receipt update.

Big Picture Takeaway — A Normalizing Economy

As the first few months of each fiscal year normally see higher-than-expected revenues, this month of collections beating estimates by 3.5% is good news. With the better-than-expected revenues in August making up for July’s slightly lower revenues, Kansas is still well within the range of collections needed to follow a successful trajectory this fiscal year.

Individual income and retail sales tax collections were above estimates for the second month in a row. Collections in these categories were also approximately 10% higher than in August 2023. Individual income tax collections above estimates could indicate higher-than-expected earnings or increased compliance. Elevated retail sales receipts may reflect strong consumer spending, which is characteristic of a healthy economy. If this trend continues, Kansas can easily stay on track to hit the $10.16 billion revenue prediction by next June. But with no guarantee that other receipts will continue coming in above estimates, hitting that target could be more difficult if corporate tax collections consistently come in well under estimates, as has been the case for the second month in a row.

July 2024

Revenue highlights:

• Actual collections for July 2024 were 1.0%, or $6.4 million, below the estimate for the month and 3.0% lower than July 2023.

• To date, Kansas has collected 6.5% of the $10.16 billion in total expected revenue for the current fiscal year.

• Corporate tax collections were $15.7 million, or 31.4% lower, than revenue expectations, although individual income tax and retail sales tax collections were $8.5 million, or 2.8%, and $6.4 million, or 2.8%, higher than expected, respectively.

For additional details, see the July State General Fund Revenue Receipt update. 

Big Picture Takeaway — Let's Keep Watching

Coming off a tax-focused special legislative session that determined the direction for revenue expectations in this new fiscal year, revenue receipts were understandably lower than state estimators predicted back in April. This might leave some lawmakers and state agencies nervous, knowing that the first few months of the Kansas fiscal year are typically stronger revenue months.

Corporate income taxes were $10.5 million, or 23.3%, lower than this month last year, which is not cause for alarm since corporate tax collections are volatile due to the corporate “big hitters” that Kansas relies on. As FY 2025 continues, we are watching how the tax decisions made during the June special session impact future incoming revenues — and whether Kansas lawmakers will need to course correct when they return in January.

Because the budget cycle never ends, the start of FY 2025 is also the start of the budget planning process for upcoming FY 2026. In July, state agencies receive guidance from the Department of Budget to begin recommendations and requests to fund the programs and services that impact our daily lives. In the coming months, agencies will receive input from legislative committees, staff, service providers, advocates, and the public to finalize priorities and ultimately decide what will be submitted to the Governor’s Office for inclusion in the Governor’s Budget Report – the formal proposed budget to the Legislature that serves as the starting point for the FY 2026 budget.

This year, Kansas lawmakers have launched an interim committee to study possible changes to this process, specifically allowing legislators to plan the budget without the Governor’s Budget Report. We will keep you updated on their decisions this fall.

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